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Exam 5: Demand Forecasting

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Question 1

True/False

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One of the goals of an effective CPFR system is to minimize the negative impacts of the bullwhip effect on supply chains.

A) True
B) False

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True

Question 2

Multiple Choice

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Using the actual demand shown in the table below, what is the forecast for May (accurate to 1 decimal) using a 4-month weighted moving average and the weights 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 (with the heaviest weight applied to the most recent period) ? Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.39 36 40 38 48 46

A) 44.4
B) 43.0
C) 42.5
D) 41.6

E) C) and D)
F) B) and C)

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Question 3

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Some of the benefits of CPFR include strengthening partner relationships, providing an analysis of sales and order forecasts both upstream and downstream, and allowing collaboration on future requirements and planning.

The true value of CPFR comes from the sophisticated forecasting algorithms that provide companies with highly accurate forecasts, not from the exchange of forecasting information.

As tighter control limits are instituted for the tracking signal, there is a greater probability of finding exceptions that require no action, but it also means catching changes in demand earlier.

In the Delphi forecasting method, a group of internal and external experts are surveyed during several rounds in terms of future events and long-term forecasts of demand but the group members do not physically meet.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) surveys more than 300 purchasing and supply executives in the United States using a questionnaire seeking information on "changes in production, new orders, new export orders, imports, employment, inventories, prices, lead-times, and the timeliness of supplier deliveries in their companies comparing the current month to the previous month." The ISM Report on Business focuses only on the manufacturing sector.

According to the textbook, which of the following is NOT a way to closely match supply and demand?

Which of the following statements is FALSE:

One common Cause-and-Effect Model used is:

According to the text, the ultimate goal of any forecasting endeavor is to have an accurate and unbiased forecast.

The four components of time series data are: trend variations, cyclical variations, seasonal variations, and random variations.Briefly describe each type of variation.

The goal of a good forecasting technique is to achieve 98.7% accuracy between the forecast and actual demand.

Associative forecasting methods are based on opinions and intuition.

Given the following information, calculate the forecast (accurate to 2 decimals) for period three using exponential smoothing and  = 0.3.Period Demand Forecast 1 64 59 2 70

List and describe two types of qualitative forecasting methods.

The impact of poor communication and inaccurate forecasts resonates along the supply chain and results in the:

If you were calculating a forecast using an exponential smoothing model, a calculation using  = 0.2 would be putting a greater emphasis on recent data, while a calculation using  = 0.8 would be putting a greater emphasis on past data.Thus a lower  is more responsive to changes in demand in the most recent periods.

The goal of a good forecasting technique is to minimize the deviation between actual demand and the forecast.

The exponential smoothing forecast has the same value as the naïve forecast when  in the exponential smoothing model is equal to: