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Exam 20: Time-Series Analytics and Forecasting

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Question 31

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An estimated second-order autoregressive model for average mortgage rate is: .If the average mortgage rate in 2004 was 6.5 and in 2011 was 6.0,the forecast for 2013 is ____________________.

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Question 32

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We calculate the three-period moving average for a time series for all time periods except the first period.

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Question 33

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Which of the following statements is true?

The time series component that reflects the irregular changes in a time series that are not caused by any other component,and tends to hide the existence of the other more predictable components,is called random variation.

The time series component that reflects a long-term,relatively smooth pattern or direction exhibited by a time series over a long time period is called seasonal.

A trend is one of the four different components of a time series.It is a long-term,relatively smooth pattern or direction exhibited by a series,and its duration is more than one year.

The mean absolute deviation averages the absolute differences between the actual values of the time series at time t and the forecast values at time:

The time series component that reflects a long-term,relatively smooth pattern or direction exhibited by a time series over a long time period (more than one year) is called:

If the time series displays a gradual or no trend and no evidence of seasonal variation,exponential smoothing is not an effective as a forecasting method.

Coffee Imports The coffee imports (in millions of dollars)from a Latin American country for 10 years are shown below. ​ ​ -{Coffee Imports Narrative} Use the regression technique to calculate the linear trend line.

The way a seasonal index is computed involves which of the following steps?

The autoregressive model = 200 + 15yt− ₁ was developed from a time series.Forecast the next value of the time series if the last observation was 8.

For which of the following values of the smoothing constant w will the smoothed series catch up most quickly whenever the original time series changes direction?

Daily Hoagie Sales The table below shows the number of hoagies sold daily during a four-week period at Hoagie Haven in Sutton,West Virginia. ​ ​ -{Daily Hoagie Sales Narrative} Calculate the seasonal (daily)indexes,using the trend line developed in the previous question.

The trend line = 0.75 + 0.005t was calculated from quarterly data for 2000-2004,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2000.The trend value for the second quarter of the year 2005 is ____________________.

ebay Storefront Sales The sales figures (in $1000s)have been recorded in an ebay storefront as shown in the following table. ​ ​ -{ebay Storefront Sales Narrative} Calculate the percentage of trend for each time period.

Liquor Sales The number of cases of liquor sold by a liquor wholesaler in an 8-year period follows. ​ ​ -{Liquor Sales Narrative} A centered 3-year moving average is to be constructed for the liquor sales.The result of this process will lead to a total of ____________________ moving averages.

Carpet Outlet A carpet outlet has been keeping daily sales records over the past four weeks as shown below. ​ ​ -{Carpet Outlet Narrative} Calculate the daily indexes based on the regression trend line in the previous question.

If a time series displays a gradual or no trend and no evidence of seasonal variation,____________________ can be effective as a forecasting method.

One application of seasonal indexes is to remove the seasonal variation in a time series.The process is called deseasonalizing,and the result is called a seasonally adjusted time series.